Why you don't have to be afraid

Fear is everywhere right now.

Turn on the tv, check your email, open facebook, talk to a friend or your family... You can't escape it.

Coronavirus.

And businesses are trying to capitalize on our fear. That's why our inboxes are overflowing with fear-related marketing.

"Buy my product. I have a plan to save you from coronavirus."

That might be effective, but it feels morally gross to me. So this email will be different.

There will be no links to buy anything in this email, or even a mention of my company's products.

Instead, I'm going to share directly from the heart.

You don't have to be afraid.

In a minute, I'm going to prove it with numbers.

But before I do, here's a Bible verse to meditate on:

Have I not commanded you? Be strong and courageous. Do not be afraid; do not be discouraged, for the LORD your God will be with you wherever you go. - Joshua 1:19

Take 60 seconds to meditate on this verse. Even if you are not a Christian, you may find it surprisingly powerful.

Now let's talk about fear. Does it make sense to be afraid?

I am a businessman, not a microbiologist.

For that reason, I am not going to speak on whether you should be afraid of the Covid-19 from a health perspective. I recommend you find a health expert that you trust for that.

Instead, I'm going to discuss whether REALTORS should fear the possibility of a recession.

The short answer is no.

Now let's prove it with numbers.

Everyone reading this email remembers the recession of 2007-2009.

Some of us became short sale or REO experts during that time. Some of us hadn't entered the business yet.

Either way, few of us remember the details. Let's go back and look at that event as a worst case scenario for 2020.

By the way, in case you're thinking "Chris, what if 2007 isn't the worst case scenario?"

I think it's fair to see 2007 as an absolute worst case scenario for 2 reasons:

Reason #1 - No underlying problems in housing market as there were in 2007

Reason #2 - Reduced spending is largely self-imposed, will likely return to normal after outbreak

In fact your business may not suffer at all. But let's drill down into 2007 by the numbers to see exactly how bad the worst case scenario might be.

During that recession, there were 3 main factors that affected your business as a REALTOR.

1. The total number of homes sold
2. The average price of homes sold
3. And the total number of agents selling

The total number of homes sold fell by 47%.

At the same time, the average price of homes sold fell by 19%.

That would mean that average income of agents fell by 66%.

Sounds like a blood bath, right?

The saving grace was that at the same time, a bunch of your competition left the business. Approx 26% of licensed REALTORS quit. And trust me, this number is soft. There were many more agents who effectively left the business but chose to keep their license.

This has a reverse effect on average agent income. Actual commissions only fell by 40%.

Still sounds bad, right?

Well remember, the recession didn't slash REALTOR income by 40% across the board. It affected some by A LOT. Others, it didn't hurt at all.

So how can you be sure you're in the right group?

All you need to do to recession-proof your real estate business is increase your pipeline of business by 1.65x.

Sounds challenging, but most agents aren't nearly maxing out their lead generation efforts. They are doing just enough to get by.

If you've followed me for any length of time, you are no doubt familiar with the concept of your Lead Number.

Your Lead Number is the number of new leads you need to put into your pipeline each month in order to hit your income goals. This is the most basic component of any business. If you don't know your Lead Number you can use my calculator below.

Lead Number Calculator (.xls)
The file is view-only. To use it, go to "File" -> "Make a copy" and then you can edit it.

Once you know your Lead Number, all you have to do is multiply it times 1.65.

This will allow you to continue to grow your business even in the absolute worst case scenario as outlined above.

And if the worst case scenario is never realized (which seems likely), then your business will BOOM.

In uncertain times, we have no reason to be afraid if we...

- Know and understand the numbers
- And are willing to take action

Now that you are no longer afraid, pass this along to an agent who might be worried about their business. And then let's go execute.

Prayers for all affected,

-Chris Jones

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